Ken Salzinger is the founder and owner of Kenmar Sales and Consulting and the author of the "Ken's Catch" newsletter. He can be reached at [email protected].
Why are seafood sales declining?
If you follow what some of the pundits are saying, it is due to inflation and that seafood product prices are higher than other proteins. Others say that seafood is not top of mind when it comes to cooking at home or even at a restaurant. Some have alluded to the possibility that due to the amount of seafood imported into this country, it is unsafe to consume. Are they correct? In my opinion, no.
I think there is an underlying reason for the lack of demand for seafood in the current environment, and while some of the information may be valid, I think the overall situation must be looked at before reaching any conclusions.
U.S. per-capita seafood consumption steadily increased from 16 pounds in 1995 to 20.5 pounds in 2021. This increase is commensurate with the increase in seafood imports, which is how per-capita consumption is obtained (i.e., the volume of imports divided by the population). However, this is too easy of a way of trying to calculate per-capita consumption, as much of the imports we receive are not necessarily consumed and remain in cold storage facilities across the country.
Even so, seafood imports continuously trended upward until the pandemic, when all hell broke loose. There were supply chain disruptions, higher prices for all species across the board, restaurant closures, and changes in consumer purchasing habits. However, 2019, 2020, and 2021, which coincidentally aligned with the onset and duration of Covid, were the best years I have experienced in terms of commissions earned in my career.
Since then, my earnings have collapsed to 50 percent of what those years brought in. I am not looking for a pity party, but I am having difficulty reconciling the results with what was happening in our country. And yet, there are people who espouse the theory that consumption is trending up. How can that be?
A spokesperson for the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute recently suggested that “health, taste, and enjoyment continue to drive overall seafood consumption, with cost increases factoring into purchasing decisions in recent years. Sales and promotions are the strongest purchase drivers for seafood and will continue through 2024 as shoppers balance value and taste.”
While I am not privy to all the ad data across the country, I would say that the heaviest-promoted seafood item is shrimp. Yet, U.S. shrimp imports declined in 2023 from another poor year in 2022. Shrimp can be used in so many ways – as an appetizer or entrée, boiled, sauteed, fried, or grilled. Despite its ease in preparing and cooking, there is no question that demand for shrimp has abated.
If continued promotions and sales were the answer, I would be hopping onto that bandwagon. However, I am afraid they are not. Not only has demand for shrimp declined in this country, but other markets around the world are experiencing a similar decline. Overseas, shrimp-exporting countries are taking a beating regarding the prices they are getting paid compared to their increased cost of production.
This not only applies to shrimp but most seafood varieties, with certain exceptions. I speak to importers and distributors on a daily basis and most, if not all, are concerned about the current business environment. So, where is the disconnect?
What about other proteins, you might ask? How are they faring in this current business climate? Neither meat, poultry, nor pork have encountered the same kind of difficulties that seafood has experienced.
One reason for this is the fact that the consumer is more familiar with these proteins, having been exposed to them since they were children. Moreover, they don’t have the myriad varieties that seafood has. Meat has steaks, chopped meat, roasts, etc., but they are all from a single animal. The same is true with pork. While poultry has chicken, turkey, and duck, there are over 100 different species of edible seafood globally. For instance, do you know how many different varieties of shrimp there are? Or crab? The list goes on.
I am unsure what has happened to the seafood market to experience the type of decline we have seen. To me, seafood does not have the representation that other proteins have working on their behalf to promote their products and increase consumption. I was always of the opinion that the National Fisheries Institute was the spokesperson for the U.S. seafood industry, but based on recent developments, I see that is not the case.
What we are lacking is a voice or group of voices whose ultimate goal is to promote seafood to the masses. At a previous Seafood Expo North America pre-pandemic, I was approached by someone at a major seafood firm to discuss how we can improve seafood consumption.
I was under the impression that there was a group already in place that was willing to tackle this issue. What happened to it, I don’t know. Perhaps Covid got in the way, and people have lost interest in this exercise. Obviously, it would require participants to go beyond their regular job requirements, but I believe it is important enough to the industry in general that people will make time to work on this.
The newly formed Global Shrimp Council is a promising start to the industry’s obligatory mission of increasing seafood consumption.
